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FW Turkey Trot: What it means for my marathon expectations

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5ksandcabernets: FW Turkey Trot: What it means for my marathon expectations

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Monday, December 1, 2008

FW Turkey Trot: What it means for my marathon expectations

Before Thursday, my White Rock Marathon goal was to run a 3:30, which is an 8:00/mile pace. This was based on my training and my times in shorter race distances, particularly my half marathon time of 1:38 on Nov. 2 and my 5k time of 21:01 on Oct. 18.

And then came Thursday morning's double PR at the FW Turkey Trot, where I ran a 19:25 in the 5K (winning my age group) and a 44:25 in the 10k 40 minutes later.

Now what?

Since I began training, I've paced myself like a 3:30 to 3:40 marathoner. I felt like I was getting fast, but had no idea I had a sub-20 minute 5k inside of me. I know 5ks are not very good predictors of what pace one should run a marathon. It just shows your potential if you put in enough mileage. Still, it's kind of cool to plug in the numbers and see that someone who runs a 5K as fast I did has the potential to run a 3:10 marathon.

Potential. Well, I don't want to potentially blowup at White Rock, so there is no way I'm going to attempt to run that fast. My 10k time says I have the potential to run a 3:29 marathon, which is what I was aiming for all along, but remember, I ran that 10k on tired legs. I know could shave another 2 to 2 1/2 minutes off that performance, which would give me a 42 minute 10k, and the potential, the potential to run a 3:18 marathon.

My half marathon time of 1:38 aligns more closely of what I've thought I could run in the marathon. The running formulas say someone with that time could run a 3:31 full.

I may be getting faster, but my long-run confidence has not caught up to my short-race performances. A marathon is a different kind of monster and because my previous two marathons ended very badly, I am going to err on the side of being conservative in this race. What I'll do is start slowly the first five miles, gradually working my way to 8-minute mile pace. I'll do a full body check at the halfway mark and again at the 20-mile mark. If I'm feeling good, then I'll turn it on and see what I've got. If not, that's okay too. I just want to enjoy this marathon and come across the finish line feeling good about the training I've put in.

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10 Comments:

Blogger Derek said...

I think you have a good game plan of starting slow and building to an 8 min/mile pace. All the experts say that to run your fastest marathon that one should run the 2nd half of the marathon faster than the 1st. I guess one thing is for certain that you should break the 4 hour mark!!

December 1, 2008 at 9:54 AM  
Blogger Burger said...

So I take it you're not going to be going out with the 3:30 pace group?

I'm personally of the mindset that if the 'potential' is there and all the stars align, go for broke on race day - without crashing and buring of course.

Why not pace yourself at 3:30 pace for the first few miles and if you feel like you have more in ya, go for a 3:20-3:25?

December 1, 2008 at 10:46 AM  
Blogger Kevin said...

Burger
I think I will go out with 3:30 pace group to start with. In fact, I know with just regular jogging, I run about a 7:50 or so..So, Im actually going to stay within a 7:50-8:00 mile pace for the first 20, then go for it in the end...
i wanna go for it, believe me, but man, my last two marys have ended so badly, that i dont want that to happen again.

December 1, 2008 at 10:51 AM  
Blogger Burger said...

I hear ya man. Sounds like a solid strategy.

Still shaking my head over the 5K improvement. You have every right to be confident heading into the marathon. You've got some wicked speed friend!

December 1, 2008 at 11:28 AM  
Blogger rodney said...

Hey Kevin. First of all, I am awed with how far you've come along these last few months with this marathon training business.
Second, I don't know if Alabama can make it past Florida. The Gators are just red hot right now. If Bama does survive Florida, I would expect to see them play Oklahoma (sorry Texas- the BCS is not my fault). I don't think the Sooners will score quite so many points on the SEC champion. Maybe they can do a little better than Ohio State.

December 1, 2008 at 1:00 PM  
Blogger Victoria said...

Ooooh, so much strategery! Whatever you end up running, I'm still going to bet that you will be able to go faster in another marathon or two (or three or four)-- you are just beginning to see how fast you can run!

December 1, 2008 at 2:29 PM  
Blogger Linden said...

I've said it before, but I am very excited to hear how your marathon goes! I think you're planning to do it just right. It's what the Olympic marathoner told me: run the first 30k (20 miles), race the last 10k.

December 1, 2008 at 2:34 PM  
Blogger Jenny said...

After I read about your Turkey Trot, I was thinking exactly that - especially with your 5k time. (My husband has a 19:40 PR time, so I am familiar with those numbers.) I certainly think you have the potential for a faster marathon, but of course, that would be under perfect conditions. I think your expectations are reasonable, and your plan sounds excellent. Why be greedy at the beginning, only to ruin it, right? Better to gauge where you are at during different points in the race. I can't wait to hear about how you do!

December 1, 2008 at 3:55 PM  
Blogger Just_because_today said...

go with what you have. If what you have that day is a 3.20, you will run a 3.20. Why worry about a number when we know we are only going to run what we are going to run based on what we have inside?
You know what you have, go with that and anything better is just going to be just that, better.

December 1, 2008 at 8:48 PM  
Blogger Kevin said...

Rodney - thanks. And good luck with the Tide.
Victoria - Strategery? I'm going to try to use that word in a newspaper story.
Linden, Jenny, Myriam - Yall (that's Texan for you all) are right. I shouldn't be greedy. I should just run what I can run.

December 2, 2008 at 8:51 AM  

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