FW Turkey Trot: What it means for my marathon expectations

Before Thursday, my White Rock Marathon goal was to run a 3:30, which is an 8:00/mile pace. This was based on my training and my times in shorter race distances, particularly my half marathon time of 1:38 on Nov. 2 and my 5k time of 21:01 on Oct. 18.

And then came Thursday morning's double PR at the FW Turkey Trot, where I ran a 19:25 in the 5K (winning my age group) and a 44:25 in the 10k 40 minutes later.

Now what?

Since I began training, I've paced myself like a 3:30 to 3:40 marathoner. I felt like I was getting fast, but had no idea I had a sub-20 minute 5k inside of me. I know 5ks are not very good predictors of what pace one should run a marathon. It just shows your potential if you put in enough mileage. Still, it's kind of cool to plug in the numbers and see that someone who runs a 5K as fast I did has the potential to run a 3:10 marathon.

Potential. Well, I don't want to potentially blowup at White Rock, so there is no way I'm going to attempt to run that fast. My 10k time says I have the potential to run a 3:29 marathon, which is what I was aiming for all along, but remember, I ran that 10k on tired legs. I know could shave another 2 to 2 1/2 minutes off that performance, which would give me a 42 minute 10k, and the potential, the potential to run a 3:18 marathon.

My half marathon time of 1:38 aligns more closely of what I've thought I could run in the marathon. The running formulas say someone with that time could run a 3:31 full.

I may be getting faster, but my long-run confidence has not caught up to my short-race performances. A marathon is a different kind of monster and because my previous two marathons ended very badly, I am going to err on the side of being conservative in this race. What I'll do is start slowly the first five miles, gradually working my way to 8-minute mile pace. I'll do a full body check at the halfway mark and again at the 20-mile mark. If I'm feeling good, then I'll turn it on and see what I've got. If not, that's okay too. I just want to enjoy this marathon and come across the finish line feeling good about the training I've put in.